bbd指标（股票bbd指标）

2016年6月，万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数为30.8，即新经济占整个经济投入的比重为30.8%。

声明：从2016年7月开始，中国新经济指数报告由万事达卡冠名，指数名称正式更名为：万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数。

一、指数概览

2016年6月，万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数（以下简称NEI）为30.8，即新经济占整个经济投入的比重为30.8%。该值较5月的30.1上升0.7个百分点，是2015年8月以来的第三高值（图1）。NEI之新经济据于以下定义：首先，高人力资本投入、高科技投入、轻资产。其次，可持续的较快增长。第三，符合产业发展方向。NEI所含行业详见第二部分的讨论和《万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数技术报告》。

二、主要分项指标

NEI包括劳动力、资本和科技投入三项一级指标，它们在NEI中的权重分别是40%、35%和25%。6月NEI的微升主要来自资本投入的反弹，而劳动力投入与科技投入指数均略有回落（图2）。劳动力投入指数从3月开始首次突破30，达到31.4，但随后三个月该指数连续下降，6月跌至29.0。资本投入指数在近半年中的波动较大，在4月从36.5急跌至26.6之后，连续两月出现强劲反弹，升至32.2。科技投入指数在4月达到历史最高值33.5之后连续两月均有回落，下降至31.7，但仍然是过去10个月来的第三高值。

劳动力、资本和科技投入的变化绝对值分别为-0.7，3.2，和-0.5个百分点，与权重相乘求和后，对4月NEI变化的绝对贡献值为0.7（图3）。

分行业看，NEI中占比最大的行业为新一代信息技术与信息服务产业，2016年6月为总指数贡献了10.6个百分点，新材料行业在本月上升较快，贡献4.9个百分点，其次为新能源产业，贡献4.3个百分点（图4）。

三、新经济就业情况

2016年6月，新经济行业入职平均工资水平下降至每月8336元，自2016年2月以来波动较大（图5）。新经济工资主要来自应届生、51job以及智联招聘等数个招聘网站的招聘信息，即对劳动力的需求工资。我们在所有招聘信息中抽取出上市企业的招聘信息作为一项较为稳定的参照系，从下图中可以发现，与上市企业入职平均工资相比，新经济企业的工资水平上升更快，该趋势在2016年之后变得更加明显。

6月新经济行业招聘人数占全国总招聘人数比例稳中有降，为27.8%，比上个月降低了0.1%，而新经济行业招聘总薪酬占全国总薪酬比重从31.5%略降为30.1%。新经济行业的平均入职工资水平相对于全国平均入职工资水平有所下降，6月的新经济工资 “溢价”为8%（图6）。

从2015年8月至2016年6月，中国新经济行业招聘数量稳步上升，总需求岗位数在2015年8月仅为540万，在春节期间以及4月下降后，5月与6月反弹至1150万。从招聘岗位数量的比例看，新经济行业劳动需求量占总劳动需求量的比例略有上升，从2015年8月的26.8%上升至2016年4月的27.6%，6月略微回落至27.2%。

四、城市人口流动

从2016年5月开始，新经济指数报告加入了人口流动这一重要数据。6月与5月相比，全国205个机场有128个人口净流入增加，77个人口净流入减少。图8列出了2016年5月到6月通过航班流动的的城市人口净流入增加最多的前十大城市。北京、武汉和广州在当月人口净流入增量上排名前三，代表这三个城市在人口集聚上的“加速度”名列前茅。济南、长沙和南京紧随其后。

五、新经济城市排名

新经济总量指数城市排名前20名如图9所示，上海、深圳、北京、杭州与成都排名前五。广州由于新成立的新经济企业在近两月收缩较快，在榜单上连续后退。该排序的计算方式是，计算每个投入指标在所有城市中的排序百分位，再将百分位加权平均，体现的是近半年城市间新经济总量排名。

图10是从2015年12月到2016年6月新经济占比城市排名，前五名为上海、北京、深圳、杭州与福州。

更多咨询敬请联络:

万事达卡：

公共关系副总裁 吴焕宇

电话：+86-10-8519-9304

电邮：Huanyu_wu@mastercard.com

财新智库：

财新智库莫尼塔董事长兼首席经济学家 沈明高

电话：+86-10-8104-8016

电邮：minggaoshen@caixin.com

公关总监 马玲

电话：+86-10-8590-5204

电邮：lingma@caixin.com

BBD（数联铭品）：

BBD（数联铭品）首席经济学家 陈沁

电话：+86-28-65290823

电邮：chenqin@bbdservice.com

版权声明

万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数，是由财新智库（深圳）投资发展有限公司和成都数联铭品科技公司共同研发，与北京大学国家发展研究院合作，经过近一年努力，于2016年3月2日在北京首发的指数产品，此后每月2日上午10:00发布上月数据。

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关于BBD：

BBD（数联铭品）是行业领先的大数据解决方案提供商，紧密围绕新经济，通过动态尽调、信用评级、风险定价和经济指数四个步骤，BBD提供从微观到宏观的大数据服务。

MasterCard Caixin BBD China New Economy Index

In an effort to increase transparency on the structural changes underway in China’s economy, the MasterCard Caixin BBD China New Economy Index (NEI) was established. The subject of a year of research, the NEI was first publically released on March 2, 2016 and will be issued the 2nd of every month at 10:00am China Standard Time.

The NEI uses big data analysis to track changes in contribution to overall economic activity in China’s New Economy including 1) Energy Conservation & Environmental Protection, 2) New IT & Information Services, 3) Biotech, 4) Advanced Equipment Manufacturing, 5) Renewable Energy, 6) Advanced Materials, 7) New Energy Vehicles, 8) High-tech Services/Research and Development, and 9) Financial & Legal Services. In addition to providing a high level view of ongoing structural changes in the balance between the Old Economy and New Economy, the NEI dives deeper into the capital, labor and technological inputs driving change across the New Economy and within new economy sectors and industries.

The NEI aims to provide deeper insight into the changing characteristics of China’s economy to improve transparency and forecasting accuracy. The NEI and its sub-indices are thus an important set of indicators that can be used to follow emerging patterns and understand the pace of structural transition as the path for the New Economy gradually unfolds.

Overview

June’s MasterCard Caixin BBD New Economy Index reading came in at 30.8, indicating that the New Economy accounted for 30.8% of overall economic input activities in June. This month’s reading observed a 70 basis point increase from May and marked the third highest mark for the NEI since August of 2015 (Chart 1).

Primary Inputs: Capital Investment Drives NEI

NEI included labor, capital and technology inputs that account for 40%, 35% and 25% weight respectively. Among the primary inputs, the uptick in the June NEI reading came mainly from a capital investment rebound, as both technology investment and labor input index fell slightly (Chart 2). The labor input first went above 30 in March but since then has seen a continual slide from the high of 31.4 in March to this month’s 29.0 reading. The capital input has seen relatively more fluctuation in the last few months, falling markedly from 36.5 in March to 26.6 in April. The last two months have seen a rebound to June’s 32.2. The technology input has receded from April’s record high of 33.5 to 31.7 this month, which remains the third highest reading.

Percentage changes in labor, capital, and technology this month were -0.7, 3.2, and -0.5 percentage points respectively. After accounting for the weightings, the sum of changes resulted in the 0.7 percentage point increase in NEI (Chart 3).

Looking at the sub sectors, the New IT industry contributed the most to NEI growth, 10.6 percentage points, followed by 4.9 percentage points in Advanced Materials, and 4.3 percentage points in New Energy (Chart 4).

New Economy Employment

China’s average monthly entry-level salary advertised in the New Economy fell to RMB 8,336. This number has seen relatively high volatility since February 2016 (Chart 5). As the New Economy figure is mainly a composite of advertised entry-level salaries from job listing websites such as 51job.com and zhaopin.com, we have also analyzed job listings from publicly listed companies as a frame of reference. Compared to listed companies, New Economy sector entry-level wages have risen faster, with the trend becoming more apparent in 2016.

Hiring in New Economy sectors accounted for 27.8% of total hiring in June, a very slight decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. Total compensation in New Economy sectors also fell slightly from 31.5% to 30.1%. Meanwhile, New Economy sector entry salary premium declined relative to the overall economy salaries, now at just 8% more than economy-wide counterparts (Chart 6).

From August 2015 to June 2016, New Economy labor demand increased steadily from 5.4 million to 11.5 million (Chart 7), although there were short-term drawdowns after Chinese New Year and also in April and May. The New Economy’s share of total demand for labor increased slightly, rising from 26.8% in August 2015 to 27.6% in April 2016, but down slightly to 27.2% in June.

Urban Population Flows

Starting this month, the NEI has begun to track changes in urban population flows using domestic air travel traffic between China’s largest 205 airports as a proxy for net population movement between China’s urban centers. The tracking methodology has been adjusted for international travel that would otherwise skew flow results.

This month’s results show that in June 128 out of the 205 airports in our tracking basket saw a net population increase, while 77 airports saw net outflows. The cities of Beijing, Wuhan, and Guangzhou had observed the largest net population inflows closely followed by Jinan, Changsha, and Nanjing (Chart 8).

New Economy City Rankings

For total new economy input, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing, Hangzhou, and Chengdu placed in the top five. Guangzhou has notably seen a recession of new economy activity in the past two months and declined in rankings (Chart 9).

Rankings are based on a moving average of the percentile rank of sub-indicators for the city in the past 6 months.

For the city NEI rankings, or effectively the ratio of new economy input to total economic input in each city, Shanghai topped the list with roughly a third of the city’s economic input from new economy sectors. Beijing, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, and Fuzhou rounded out the top five, all with more than 30% input from the new economy.

For further information please contact:

MasterCard

Mr. Wu Huanyu, Vice President of Public Relations

Tel：+86-10-8519-9304

Email：Huanyu_wu@mastercard.com

Caixin Insight Group

Dr. Minggao Shen, CEO & Chief Economist

Tel：+86-10-8104-8016

Emails：minggaoshen@caixin.com

Ma Ling, Public Relations

Tel：+86-10-8590-5204

Email：lingma@caixin.com

BBD

Chenqin, Chief Economist

Tel：+86-28-65290823

Email：chenqin@bbdservice.com

The MasterCard Caixin BBD China New Economy Index is the fruit of a research partnership between Caixin Insight Group and BBD, in collaboration with the National Development School, Peking University. The subject of a year of research, the NEI was first publically released on March 2, 2016 and will be issued the 2nd of every month at 10:00am China Standard Time.

About Caixin

Caixin Media is China's leading media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile applications, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin Media aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms. Caixin Insight Group is a high-end financial data and analysis platform. For more information, please visit www.caixin.com.

About MasterCard

MasterCard (NYSE: MA), www.mastercard.com, is a technology company in the global payments industry. We operate the world’s fastest payments processing network, connecting consumers, financial institutions, merchants, governments and businesses in more than 210 countries and territories. MasterCard’s products and solutions make everyday commerce activities – such as shopping, traveling, running a business and managing finances – easier, more secure and more efficient for everyone. Follow us on Twitter @MasterCardAP and @MasterCardNews, join the discussion on the Beyond the Transaction Blog and subscribe for the latest news on the Engagement Bureau.